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Political polling

Jobbik’s support in the single digits for first time since 2014; LMP and Fidesz continue to gain strength

Since July, roughly three in ten committed voters have turned away from Jobbik while LMP has doubled its prospective share of votes by party list in the same period, a public opinion poll carried out by Nézőpont Intézet for the daily newspaper Magyar Idők reveals. Fidesz-KDNP has also gained strength compared to October, with close to half (48 percent) of those claiming to cast their vote with certainty now pledging to support ruling parties.

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In November, 35 percent of the total adult population backed governing parties, corresponding to a 4 percent increase since October. Meanwhile, the Jobbik camp has declined by a further 1 percent to only 9 percentage points, the party’s first single-digit result among the total adult population since 2014. MSZP and DK continue to be backed by 5 and 4 percent respectively; on the same base, Együtt, Párbeszéd and the Hungarian Liberal Party are each supported by 1 percent of the population. LMP is now backed by 4 percent of the total adult population, up by 1 percent since October. The Momentum Movement continues to be supported by 2 percent, while the Two-Tailed Dog Party is now backed by only 1 percent of the population.

With regard to the most likely results by party list, corresponding to the potential party preference of those claiming to participate at elections with certainty, Fidesz-KDNP has similarly gained strength; close to half (48 percent) of those pledging to take part at elections now back governing parties. On the contrary, Jobbik is now eligible for only 16 percent of votes cast by party list, down from 23 percent in June, 22 percent in August, 21 percent in September and 19 percent in October. The party’s prospective vote share by party list has been declining continuously, with around three in ten committed Jobbik voters turning away from the party since July.

Behind Jobbik, a strategic dead heat has developed between MSZP (9 percent) and DK and LMP (8 percent each). Support for LMP by party list rose from only 4 percent in July to 5 percent in August, 6 percent in September and 7 percent in October, doubling its voter camp during this period. On the same base, the Momentum is at 4 percent, ahead of Együtt and the Two-Tailed Dog Party (2 percent each), and Párbeszéd and the Hungarian Liberal Party (1 percent each).

Methodology

Nézőpont Intézet’s personal questionnaire-based public opinion survey was carried out between 1-19th November 2017 by asking 2000 persons. The sample is representative of the population aged 18 and above by gender, age, region, settlement type and educational attainment. In the case of a 2000 person sample and a 95 percent reliability level, the margin of error is 2.2 percent.