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Political polling

Support for Fidesz-KDNP has not been this high since the 2014 elections

The level of support for Fidesz-KDNP in June 2018 was higher than at any time during the previous cycle, shows a survey conducted by Nézőpont Intézet for Magyar Idők [Hungarian Times]. Even in May, the government parties enjoyed levels of popularity that exceeded the 47 % results achieved in April on the domestic lists. The present figure of 55 % is the highest level of support shown for the party since 2014. Although the balance of power has not changed within the population, the activity of those sympathising with the opposition, especially the Jobbik party, has decreased, which allowed the government parties to increase their advantage as regards the most likely list results.

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According to the survey, 42 % of the entire adult population supports the government parties. The numbers for Jobbik and MSZP are 11 % and 6 %, respectively. DK and LMP are each supported by 3 %. 2 % supports Momentum Mozgalom and 1 % supports Kétfarkú Kutya Párt.

Looking at the most probable election list results (the potential party preferences of those who say they would vote), 55 % of voters would vote for Fidesz-KDNP. This is, on the one hand, significantly more than the total voters for all opposition parties and, on the other, more than at any time since the 2014 elections. 18 % of voters would vote for Jobbik, meaning the party has lost some support since elections. The data was collected before the Mi Hazánk movement had formed a party, so the possible growth of this new party’s popularity was not reflected by the party preferences even though the inactivity of Jobbik supporters could already have played a role. Currently, 9 % of likely voters would choose the MSZP-Párbeszéd list, which means they have not reached the 10 % limit necessary for getting into Parliament even after the election of Bertalan Tóth as party president. 6 % of likely voters would vote for LMP and 5 % for DK: their popularity has not changed since the elections. Amongst likely voters, 4 % support Momentum Mozgalom and 2 % support Kétfarkú Kutya Párt.

Methodology

Nézőpont Intézet’s public opinion poll included 2,000 people and was taken between 3 and 22 June 2018. The sample is representative for the population over the age of 18 as regards sex, age, region, settlement type, and education. In the case of a sample size of 2,000 persons and a confidence level of 95 %, the sampling error is 2.2 %.