POST ELECTION POPULARITY: FIDESZ UP, OPPOSITION DOWN

Support for Fidesz-KDNP has gone up by 7 percentage points since the April elections, shows the latest party preference survey carried out during the end of November and the first half of December including a period of opposition protests. Jobbik’s popularity has declined by 6 percentage points with their support dropping to the same level as that of the stagnating MSZP-Párbeszéd alliance.

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POST ELECTION POPULARITY: FIDESZ UP, OPPOSITION DOWN

Support for Fidesz-KDNP has gone up by 7 percentage points since the April elections, shows the latest party preference survey carried out during the end of November and the first half of December including a period of opposition protests. Jobbik’s popularity has declined by 6 percentage points with their support dropping to the same level as that of the stagnating MSZP-Párbeszéd alliance.

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The Hungarian and Polish models are both similar and successful

Thanks to joint Polish-Hungarian political action and the Visegrád Four cooperation, the two countries have managed to direct unprecedented attention to the Central European region. Polish-Hungarian friendship, which forms the basis of the Visegrád Cooperation, exists not only in the field of migration and the “Europe of Nations” concept but also several other areas. The two governments have been pursuing similar policies in several domains, and results clearly prove them right.

In Poland, the year 2015 brought about changes of similar magnitude to Hungarian elections in 2010; since the collapse of the communist regime, the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) was the first to form a cabinet on its own. Thanks to policies pursued by the Szydło government, Polish-Hungarian relations have gained further strength. Furthermore, the Polish cabinet has introduced several measures based on the experiences gained by the Hungarian government since 2010.

In Hungary, Fidesz-KDNP has led public opinion polls for over eleven years an continues to be by far the most popular party formation despite spending almost eight years in office. Were elections held this Sunday, the outcome would be roughly identical to 2014 elections. Similarly, support for Poland’s ruling party has not changed substantially since elections in 2015. In both countries, lasting political stability creates a strong basis for effective governance.

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PiS government cycle nearing midterm – from the viewpoint of Poland

Introduction

There was a huge change elections in 2015 but now the situation in Poland is quite complicated. On the one hand, the country is continuously improving and on the other there are serious tensions.

The complication is the result of changes pushed by the current government. Changes are quite revolutionary and refer to many areas of social and economic life. For a full understanding of this situation, it is important to observe how public debate is structured. The fundamental aim of the United Right (coalition led by PiS) is the far-reaching change of the political and social system in Poland, including at least partial exchange of social elites. The result of this approach is the middle-class anxiety about its position and its opposition to the planned changes. The government sets the elites (which also include certain middle-class groups) against the lower class, which position is improving due the welfare as well as dignity policy.

Therefore, apart from the growing political conflict on the ruling-opposition axis, there arises social conflict (also on economic basis) between elites and masses, or more precisely between lower and middle class.

As a result of this policy, the ruling coalition gains the support of the lower classes by building a large (though uncertain) electoral base and there is no chance for opposition to attract those voters.

The analysis can be downloaded from here.

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