Jobbik has suffered the biggest setbacks during September

The decrease of the proportion of voters can be observed before the local government elections, the losers of this are primarily the far-right Jobbik and the socialist MSZP. This turns out from the nation-wide representative public opinion poll of 1,000 persons by Nézőpont Intézet, performed between 22-26 September.

Fidesz-KDNP continues to lead the competition of the parties self-confidently, 34 percent of all the respondents sympathises with the governing party. This also means that, after the lower support values of the summer, the party could stabilise its level of support. Of the left-wing parties, MSZP and DK has 6-6 percent, respectively, whereas Együtt-PM (Together-PM) has 3 percent, thus the struggle for the title of strongest left-wing party has become open again. The party of András Schiffer (the green LMP) has 4 percent of the sympathisers. By the end of the elections in April Jobbik reached a 15 percent support among the entire population, which it held steadily since then, however in September it dropped to 11 percent, which is a significant 4 percent decrease compared with the previous measurements.

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3:1 support for Tibor Navracsics vs. those in opposition

According to the public opinion poll of 1,000 representative persons by Nézőpont Intézet, which was prepared by phone query between 26-30 September, the majority of the Hungarian voters heard that Tibor Navracsics would be the Hungarian member of the European Commission and a relative majority of them thought that the commissioner nominee, likely in charge of education and culture, was suitable for the post.

It turns out from the poll that two-thirds of the population aged above 18 years was informed who the Hungarian EU commissioner would be and what areas he would be responsible for. 38 percent of the respondents thinks that the ex-foreign minister is suitable as a member of the European Commission and only 14 percent thinks that he is rather unsuitable. Half of the respondents could not answer the question, which indicates that the EU policy is still very far from the Hungarian voters. 60 percent of the Fidesz voters thinks that Navracsics is suitable, but the relative majority of the voters of the opposition parties also thinks this way, only the voters of the left-wing DK (Democratic Coalition) are divided in this question (26-26 percent).

navracsics

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István Tarlós continues to have a convincing lead in the mayoral race

István Tarlós is leading convincingly the mayoral race while joint left-wing candidate Ferenc Falus is currently unable to beat even Lajos Bokros, according to Nézőpont Intézet’s telephone opinion poll conducted on a sample of 1000 between 7 and 17 September.

The survey has revealed that Fidesz-KDNP candidate István Tarlós would collect votes from 38% of all respondents in local elections. Modern Hungary Movement mayoral candidate Lajos Bokros currently ranks second with 12% of sympathisers, while Ferenc Falus supported by left-wing parties could only get 8% of votes. Antal Csárdi (LMP) and Gábor Staudt (Jobbik) are each supported by 3% of sympathisers.

Based on the potential voting base most likely to predict the results, István Tarlós now has 50%, Lajos Bokros 14% and Ferenc Falus only 11% of the votes. A further 9% is made up of left-wing sympathisers who have not yet decided which candidate to vote for; their votes are expected to be divided between Bokros and Falus. On that basis, both the LMP’s and Jobbik’s mayoral candidates are supported by 7% of sympathisers, while the other candidates would get 2% of votes.

Overall, Fidesz has a convincing lead, also according to party preferences, which basically results from the division of left-wing voters. 32% of all respondents are Government party sympathisers, 10% support Együtt-PM and 9% LMP, while 8% would vote for MSZP and DK each, with another 7% supporting Jobbik in Budapest. Adding up the number of MSZP, DK and Együtt-PM supporters, it can be seen that Fidesz is entering the finishing stage of the local elections with a narrow advantage in the mayoral race in Budapest. From this aspect, due to relatively equalised party preferences, the 12 October vote cannot be regarded as a no-stakes contest. The district mayoral elections will have an extremely large part to play. However, it can be in favour of Fidesz, which has the most district mayors, that 65% of all respondents are satisfied with the performance of the current mayors of their districts.

Tarlos

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Stabilized party preferences

According to the public opinion poll of 1,000 representative persons by Nézőpont Intézet, which was prepared by phone query between 25-30 August, by the end of August Fidesz-KDNP could stabilise its advantage of support, after the decrease in the summer. With its rate of sympathisers of 33 percent, the governing party coalition continues to lead the competition of parties at the beginning of the political season.

After the European parliamentary elections the support of the three left-wing parties was very close to each other. Movements within the camp were continuous. The results of the recent months show that – although on a low basis, yet – MSZP regained its advantage vis-à-vis the other two left-wing parties, their support currently is: MSZP (10 percent), DK (5 percent) and Együtt-PM (3 percent) among all the respondents. Stemming from the divisions of the left-wing, the far-right Jobbik continues to be the second strongest party, with sympathisers of 15 percent. The green LMP has support of 4 percent among all the respondents. Because of the low activity mood of the supporters of the left-wing parties, the potential support data favour Fidesz, Jobbik and LMP. On this basis 42 percent would vote for the governing party, 26 percent for Jobbik, 11 percent for MSZP, 9 percent for LMP, 8 percent for DK and 4 percent for Együtt-PM.

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No mood to change mayors

Competition of parties

Fidesz-KDNP continues to lead with a convincing advantage in the competition of the parties, 33 percent of all the respondents sympathises with the governing parties – turns out from the public opinion poll by phone of 1,000 representative persons by Nézőpont Intézet, which was prepared between 21-24 July to the order of Heti Válasz.

At the same time the support of Fidesz decreased compared to the previous month (by 4 percent) and fell back to the level of November, measured before the parliamentary election campaign.

Because of the divisions of the left-wing, the far-right Jobbik continues to be the second most popular party among all the respondents, with support of 13 percent. The order of the three left-wing parties, which still ran jointly in the parliamentary elections, reflects the result of the European parliamentary elections: MSZP (Hungarian Socialist Party) was the strongest with 7 percent, DK (Democratic Coalition) was second with 5 percent, whereas Együtt-PM (Together-PM) had sympathisers of 3 percent among all the respondents. The support of the green LMP is currently 6 percent among the respondents.

With election participation of 57 percent, the potential support data follow the trends visible in the total population. In this circle Fidesz-KDNP, with its 41 percent potential support, has the advantage as well. The potential support of Jobbik is 23 percent, MSZP has 13 percent, DK and LMP has 8-8 percent, respectively, whereas Együtt-PM has 6 percent.

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Satisfaction with the mayor is irrespective of whether the leader of the given settlement is on the governing side, the left-wing or independent. Namely the proportion of satisfaction with the settlement leadership is approximately two-thirds in every case. However, of those sympathisers of the governing party who live in a settlement directed by a leader of the governing party, 87 percent are satisfied with the work of the leader of the given settlement.

Of course it is not possible to outline an exact picture about the judgement of the leadership of the settlement in connection with each settlement from a national measurement, but the results show that, looking at the nation-wide level, the majority of the society are currently satisfied with the work of the local leaders. All of these may be good news for the current settlement leaders running again, on the other hand these may be bad news for their challengers.

You can download the full poll in English here.

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