Minor changes in the party race: Jobbik and MSZP in decline, LMP and Fidesz on the increase

Realignments in the party race remained within the margin of error in the course of October. While support for Jobbik and MSZP slightly declined, both LMP and the Fidesz-KDNP alliance gained some strength, a survey prepared by Nézőpont Intézet for the daily newspaper Magyar Idők reveals.

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In October, 31 percent of the total adult population backed governing parties; the 1 percent growth compared to September is within the margin of error. The Jobbik camp is now at 10 percent following a 1 percent contraction, while MSZP supporters now amount to no more than 5 percent after a further drop of 1 percent. This represents an exceptionally low level of support in terms of the whole of the 2014 electoral cycle in the case of both Jobbik and MSZP. DK and LMP continue to command the support of 4 and 3 percent of the total adult population respectively. The Momentum Movement and the Two-Tailed Dog Party are both backed by 2 percent, while Együtt and the Hungarian Liberal Party are each supported by 1 percent of the population.

With regard to the most likely results by party list, corresponding to the party preferences of voters claiming to take part in elections with certainty, Fidesz-KDNP currently commands a 44 percent camp. Jobbik is eligible for 19 percent of votes cast by party list, somewhat below its 2014 election result. It should be pointed out that Gábor Vona’s party would have gained 21 percent of votes by party list were elections held last month, down by 1 percent compared to the previous month. MSZP also lost 1 percent of its support on this base and would now reach 10 percent of the vote by party list. Somewhat trailing the Socialists, DK remains stable at 8 percent with regard to votes cast by party list, while LMP’s camp has reached 7 percent. Based on votes cast by party list, the Momentum Movement would gain 4 percent of the vote, ahead of the Two-Tailed Dog Party (3 percent), Együtt (2 percent), and the Hungarian Liberal Party and Párbeszéd (1 percent each).

Methodology: Nézőpont Intézet’s in-person public opinion survey was conducted between 2-15 October 2017 by asking 2000 persons. The sample is representative pertaining to the population age 18 and over by gender, age, region, settlement type and level of education. In the case of a 2000 person sample and a 95 percent reliability rate, the margin of error is 2.2 percent.

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The Hungarian and Polish models are both similar and successful

Thanks to joint Polish-Hungarian political action and the Visegrád Four cooperation, the two countries have managed to direct unprecedented attention to the Central European region. Polish-Hungarian friendship, which forms the basis of the Visegrád Cooperation, exists not only in the field of migration and the “Europe of Nations” concept but also several other areas. The two governments have been pursuing similar policies in several domains, and results clearly prove them right.

In Poland, the year 2015 brought about changes of similar magnitude to Hungarian elections in 2010; since the collapse of the communist regime, the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) was the first to form a cabinet on its own. Thanks to policies pursued by the Szydło government, Polish-Hungarian relations have gained further strength. Furthermore, the Polish cabinet has introduced several measures based on the experiences gained by the Hungarian government since 2010.

In Hungary, Fidesz-KDNP has led public opinion polls for over eleven years an continues to be by far the most popular party formation despite spending almost eight years in office. Were elections held this Sunday, the outcome would be roughly identical to 2014 elections. Similarly, support for Poland’s ruling party has not changed substantially since elections in 2015. In both countries, lasting political stability creates a strong basis for effective governance.

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PiS government cycle nearing midterm – from the viewpoint of Poland

Introduction

There was a huge change elections in 2015 but now the situation in Poland is quite complicated. On the one hand, the country is continuously improving and on the other there are serious tensions.

The complication is the result of changes pushed by the current government. Changes are quite revolutionary and refer to many areas of social and economic life. For a full understanding of this situation, it is important to observe how public debate is structured. The fundamental aim of the United Right (coalition led by PiS) is the far-reaching change of the political and social system in Poland, including at least partial exchange of social elites. The result of this approach is the middle-class anxiety about its position and its opposition to the planned changes. The government sets the elites (which also include certain middle-class groups) against the lower class, which position is improving due the welfare as well as dignity policy.

Therefore, apart from the growing political conflict on the ruling-opposition axis, there arises social conflict (also on economic basis) between elites and masses, or more precisely between lower and middle class.

As a result of this policy, the ruling coalition gains the support of the lower classes by building a large (though uncertain) electoral base and there is no chance for opposition to attract those voters.

The analysis can be downloaded from here.

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Half of even opposition supporters expect Viktor Orbán’s reelection

Half a year before general elections scheduled for 2018, close to two-thirds (64 percent) of the total adult population and half (50 percent) of even opposition supporters expect the reelection of Viktor Orbán as Prime Minister, a public opinion survey carried out by Nézőpont Intézet for Magyar Idők, a daily newspaper, reveals.

According to the poll, close to two-thirds (64 percent) of the total adult population believes that Viktor Orbán will remain Prime Minister of the country following elections in 2018. On the same base, only 6 percent expect Gábor Vona to be elected Prime Minister, while 3 percent of the total adult population expect to see Ferenc Gyurcsány as head of government. The same is seen as likely for Gergely Karácsony, Bernadett Szél and Gábor Fodor each by 1 percent of the population.

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Majority of Hungarians against the replacement of government

48 percent of the total adult population and 57 percent of those pledging to cast their vote in elections would not favour a change of government on 2018, a public opinion poll carried out by Nézőpont Intézet reveals.

According to the poll, 48 percent of the total adult population would not like to see the incumbent government voted out of office in 2018, as opposed to only 35 percent who would be happy to see this happen. Curiously, an average of 14 percent of opposition supporters would also not like to see the government removed. The share of those not preferring this scenario is 20 percent within the left-wing camp (MSZP, DK, Együtt, Párbeszéd and the Hungarian Liberal Party), 17 percent among Jobbik supporters, 15 percent among Momentum sympathisers and 4 percent among LMP backers. 28 percent of respondents with an undisclosed party preference would also be unhappy to see the incumbent cabinet leave office. Among those pledging to cast their vote at elections, the share of respondents wanting to see the government removed is even slighter. Close to six in ten decided voters (57 percent) would not favour a change in government, as opposed to only a third (34 percent) who would support such a scenario.

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