SZABÓ Tímea; TÓTH Bertalan; FEKETE-GYÕR András; SZÉL Bernadett; HADHÁZY Ákos
Analyses

POST ELECTION POPULARITY: FIDESZ UP, OPPOSITION DOWN

Support for Fidesz-KDNP has gone up by 7 percentage points since the April elections, shows the latest party preference survey carried out during the end of November and the first half of December including a period of opposition protests. Jobbik’s popularity has declined by 6 percentage points with their support dropping to the same level as that of the stagnating MSZP-Párbeszéd alliance.

Fidesz-KDNP have been able to increase their support by 7 percentage points among active voters, making their current list result likely to be 54 percent. Jobbik’s popularity continues to decline and has dropped from 20 percent to 14 in just eight months. Support for MSZP-Párbeszéd has been stagnating at around 11 percent since last spring, for DK it stands at 7 percent, while LMP-Momentum have 4 percent each. Of the three, DK and Momentum have gained minimally since the elections, while the LMP has not simply fallen below last year’s 7 percent but in fact no longer reaches the compulsory threshold of 5 percent.By the end of the year support for the MKKP and Mi Hazánk were at 3 percent among active voters so this is where the two parties can expect to start next year. This also means that all four parties currently below the 5 percent threshold may have a chance at getting European Parliamentary mandates next May provided their campaigns are successful.

The popularity of parties involved in sometimes violent protests against the amendment of the Overtime Act at the end of the year has gone down compared to post-election data, indicating that voters do not support radicalism. This is also reflected in the earlier survey conducted by Nézőpont Institute where two-thirds of Hungarians deemed the opposition’s scandal politics displayed in Parliament unacceptable. Overall, the popularity of parties favouring street politics has declined by 7 percentage points since the elections, proving that radicalism is supported by a small fraction of society only.

Currently Fidesz-KDNP has 38, Jobbik 9, MSZP-Párbeszéd 6, DK 4, LMP, Momentum, MKKP and Mi Hazánk 2 percent each popularity among the total population.

Methodology

The survey conducted by Nézőpont Institute between 26 November and 15 December 2018 involved personal interviews with 2,000 people. The sample is representative of the population aged 18 years and over by gender, age, region, type of settlement and educational level. In the case of a sample size of 2,000 and confidence level of 95 percent, the sampling error is 2.2 percent.