Fidesz-KDNP likely to win on 26 May, the runner up is still to be decided

Governing party alliance Fidesz-KDNP is likely to have yet another significant victory and get well over 50 percent of the votes in the European Parliamentary election, according to a summary of the last polls.

DK, Jobbik, and MSZP-P could all finish in second place, while the chances of the LMP and Momentum are highly questionable.

Jobbik and MSZP-Dialogue have almost exactly 11-12 percent support if we average results from the five institutes. The former leads by 10-8 percent at Századvég and 12-11 at Medián, but at Publicus the MSZP-Dialogue coalition has outperformed its right-wing rival by 16-15 percent. Nézőpont Intézet (10-10 percent) and ZRI-Závecz (12-12 percent) has measured equal support for Jobbik and the MSZP. The Democratic Coalition is following the duo closely for the second place. Ferenc Gyurcsány’s party is somewhat weaker at Publicus (7 percent), but based on polls by Századvég (12 percent), Medián, Nézőpont Intézet (10-10 percent) and ZRI-Závecz (11 per cent), it is not far off.

Institute Medián Nézőpont Publicus Századvég ZRI-Závecz
Method PAPI TAPI CATI CATI CAPI
Sample 1,000 4,000 1,010 1,000 1,000
Date May 2019 02/05/2019-19/05/2019 17/04/2019-23/04/2019 10/05/2019-18/05/2019 04/05/2019-14/05/2019
Fidesz-KDNP 52 54 52 54.8 53
Jobbik 11.5 10 15 9.7 12
MSZP-Dialogue (MSZP-P) 10.5 10 16 7.5 12
Democratic Coalition (DK) 10 10 7 11.8 11
Politics Can Be Different (LMP) 4 5 4 3,2 5
Momentum 5.5 6 6 6.5 4
Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) 3 3 0 0 2
Our Homeland (Mi hazánk) 3 2 0 3.2 2
Other parties 0.5 0 0 3.2 0

Two parties are on the verge of getting into the European Parliament and it is difficult to predict which one will eventually do so. The LMP camp is at 3 percent according to Századvég, 4 percent according to Publicus, 5 percent according to Nézőpont Intézet and ZRI-Závecz, and 6 percent according to Medián. The Momentum camp is at 4 percent according to ZRI-Závecz, 6 percent according to Medián, Nézőpont Intézet and Publicus, and 7 percent according to Századvég. Opinions differ over the chances of the MKKP (Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party). Publicus and Századvég do not include the party at all, ZRI-Závecz gives it 2, Median and Nézőpont Intézet 3 percent each. We also have a similar situation in the case of Our Homeland, as it has no support at Publicus, but at the other three institutions it stands at 2-3 percent.

Based on the averages of the polls, Fidesz-KDNP would get 13, Jobbik 3, MSZP-P and the Democratic Coalition 2 mandates each in the European Parliament, and Momentum would get one. If the LMP also reached the 5 percent threshold, it would take one mandate from Jobbik. The distribution of mandates is influenced by voter turnout, which, according to the research consensus, will be higher than the 29 percent five years ago: Median predicts 51, Publicus 44, Závecz 45 percent, and Nézőpont Intézet 32 percent.