The Fidesz-KDNP party alliance occupies a favourable position as regards the autumn local elections: 3.3 million support the politics of the governing coalition, and this figure has been stable over 3 million ever since January 2018.
That is, if the election were due this Sunday, their list would take 53 percent of votes. The governing parties are followed neck-and-neck by DK and Momentum with 11 percent each, then by Jobbik showing a more marked backlog due to a further loss of voters, scoring 8 percent, the August public opinion poll conducted by Nézőpont Institute for Magyar Nemzet reveals.
As for the most probable party list results, Fidesz-KDNP would take 53 percent of votes at an election held now, that is, the governing parties have continued to enjoy unwavering support since the EP election. The groups of sympathisers of the opposition parties stagnated or shrank in the past month. The lists of Democratic Coalition (DK) and Momentum would still obtain 11 percent each. The politics of Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) is supported now by one percentage point less, 8 percent, of active voters; that is, the party has been under 10 percent for months. The group of voters of the MSZP-P alliance has decreased to a similar extent (to 6 percent). The mandate acquisition threshold of 5 percent of active voters has not been reached by the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party (Magyar Kétfarkú Kutyapárt; (4 percent), Politics Can Be Different (LMP; 3 percent), and Our Home Movement (Mi Hazánk Mozgalom; 3 percent).
Fidesz-KDNP has a major advantage also in the total adult population: the party alliance boasts 41 percentage point support, i.e. it has almost 3.3 million sympathisers, the same as it did a month ago. The party preference indicator of the governing parties has been at least 38 percent since January 2018; that is, Fidesz-KDNP has enjoyed the support of a stable min. 3 million for a long time. On the other hand, none of the opposition party formations have managed to have two-digit results among all voters. Democratic Coalition and Momentum stand at 7 percent each, corresponding to hardly more than five hundred thousand sympathisers. On the same basis, Jobbik lost one percent and scores 6 percent and the MSZP-P alliance is at 5 percent, that is, neither have half a million sympathisers any more. The Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party (3 percent) is followed by Politics Can Be Different that continues to operate without female co-chair (2 percent) and Our Home Movement (2 percent).
The survey of Nézőpont Institute was conducted from 1 to 26 August 2019, through personal interviews with 5 000 people. The sample is representative regarding the population over 18 years of age by gender, age, region, settlement type and educational level. With a sample of 5 000 and a confidence level of 95 percent, the sampling error is 1.4 percent.