NO POLLSTER PREDICTS KARÁCSONY VICTORY looks into the latest data ahead of the municipal elections to see how individual polling institutes gauged the status of the mayoral election. Institutes that regularly publish political opinion polls measured István Tarlós’ lead in tight competition.

The latest findings by Hungarian polling institutes before the lord mayoral election show István Tarlós’ advantage in close competition. Medián, Nézőpont Intézet and Publicus have all published public opinion poll data on decided active voters. Századvég and ZRI-Závecz has published data on active voters.

Among decided active voters, István Tarlós commands 49, Gergely Karácsony 43 and Róbert Puzsér 8 percent support, according to Nézőpont Intézet’s last telephone survey (CATI) of 750 respondents before the municipal elections. According to Medián’s online survey (CAWI) of 1,000 respondents, István Tarlós commands 48, Gergely Karácsony 47 and Róbert Puzsér 5 percent. Publicus alone has had data identical down to percentage points for main candidates István Tarlós and Gergely Karacsony at 48 percent of support, and 4 percent for Róbert Puzsér, in its telephone survey of 606 respondents.

Among decided active voters about to attend the municipal elections, polling conducted by Századvég on a telephone sample measured  support for István Tarlós at 51, Gergely Karácsony at 43, Róbert Puzsér at 5 and Krisztián Berki at 1 percent. According to a poll conducted using the ZRI-Závecz application and IVR technology, the current mayor would gain 48, Gergely Karacsony 45-46, Róbert Puzsér 6, and Krisztián Berki zero or 1 percent.

Institute Medián Nézőpont Publicus Századvég ZRI-Závecz
Methodology CAWI CATI CATI Expert estimate Application and IVR technology
Sample size 1,000 750 606 1,343
Date 05.10.2019-09.10.2019 09.10.2019 03.10.2019-08.10.2019 05.09.2019-09.09.2019
Measured sample Decided active voters Decided active voters


Decided active voters


Expert estimate


Decided active voters


István Tarlós 48 49 48 51 48
Gergely Karácsony 47 43 48 43 45-46
Róbert Puzsér 5 8 4 5 6
Krisztián Berki 0 0 0 1 0-1


Averaging results from all five institutes shows István Tarlós’ advantage (49 percent) over Gergely Karácsony (45 percent), while Róbert Puzsér’s backing comes to 6 percent.